Вредновање геоеколошких детерминанти Бачке у функцији одрживог развојa - PhDData

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Вредновање геоеколошких детерминанти Бачке у функцији одрживог развојa

The thesis was published by Milentijević Nikola, in April 2022, University of Novi Sad.

Abstract:

This doctoral dissertation was written in order to fulfill the need for a synthesis of physical-geographical understandings about Bačka region, since the only serious scientific approach in the study of natural resources of Bačka refers to the research performed in 1970s. The subject of research in the doctoral dissertation is related to the geoecological evaluation of the natural basis of Bačka and the correlation with the concept of sustainable development. Takingthis into consideration, in the evaluation of natural values, the following should be applied: a) modern empirical models, b) mathematical-statistical methods,c) GIS tools and d) remote sensing methods. This is the only approach in the geoecological assessment of potential that can provide a long-term model of sustainable development of Bačka. The aim of the research is to determine the interdependence of geoecological determinants and sustainable development, especially when it comes to dominant economic activities. Only with a prominent approach, it is possible to determine the degree and directions of development of these relations as well as the rules of geoecological development of Bačka region. The analysis of orographic determinants based on the RUSLE model indicates the soil erosion of low intensity in Bačka, with the exception of the Titel loess plateau, where erosive conditions are more pronounced. The sustainability of agricultural production may be endagered by the low afforestation of Bačka and its agricultural land as well as the unfavorable distribution of forest resources. The Mann-Kendall test used in the analysis of climatological determinants indicates positive air temperature trends while there are no changes in precipitation variables (1949-2018). GIS data modeling and possible climate scenario (2018-2050) indicate the spatial variability of changes: a) dominant increase of air temperature and b) in precipitation variables changes are potentially less pronounced, with the exception of the north and south of Bačka, where there will be a deficit of precipitation. The rainfall anomaly index indicates the variability of the total precipitation, especially in certain years (1999, 2000, 2001 and 2010). Interpreted results may endangered the sustainability of agricultural production and reduce average yields, to some extent limit tourist movements in larger urban agglomerations of Bačka, affect the reduction of areas under protected wetlands in Bačka. Тhe quality of air in the urban agglomerations of Bačka is at a satisfactory level and these are favorable circumstances from the aspect of agriculture, health of population and tourism. In the analysis of hydrological determinants, different approaches were used in the evaluation of groundwater and surface water quality. Descriptive statistical analysis and IDW interpolation method indicate higher values of iron, orthophosphate and arsenic concentration. Arsenic toxicity limits the use of water from water discharges for water supply and agriculture. The ANOVA test used in the assessment of the water quality of the Danube and Tisza through Bačka indicates that the quality of surface waters is generally at a satisfactory level. The problem is the exceeding of the values of suspended solids (up to several times higher than the permitted values). Higher values of nitrite, BOD5 and ammonium ions are a problem in certain sectors on the Tisza. Pearson’s correlation analysis indicates a more pronounced statistical significance, i.e. correlation of the analyzed parameters for the sector of the Danube in relation to the sector of the Tisza in Bačka. PCA analysis indicates a higher number of dominant pollution factors on the Tisza in relation to the sector of the Danube in Bačka. Therefore, thepresented water quality results of the Danube and Tisza can potentially have a negative impact on existing and planned water supply systems; higher concentrations of suspended solids can lead to increased turbidity of river waters, and be the cause of more pronounced needs for water purification. Exceeding the values of nitrite and ammonium ions in certain sectors of theTisza can have similar effects, which limits the water supply of settlements on the banks of the Tisza. In general, the water quality of the Danube and Tisza used for irrigation is at a satisfactory level. Higher concentrations of suspended solids on the Danube and Tisza as well as nitrites on the Tisza may adversely affect from the aspect of drainage and soil fertility. For the needs of certain industries, such as the textile, machine or chemical industry, the water quality of the Danube and Tisza is satisfactory. To a certain extent, water quality is limiting only for the needs of the food industry (due to the content of suspended solids or nitrites). Activities on the Danube and the Tisza such as navigation may be limited by higher levels of suspended solids and nitrites, while nitriteson the Tisza lead to eutrophication, and further highlight this problem. High concentrations of dissolved oxygen are favorable from the aspect of sustainable fishing; Occasional exceedances of ammonium ions in all profiles on the Tisza, nitrite on the Titel profile and BOD5 on Martonoš can be a problem – prominent exceedances can lead to reduction of ichtyofauna population under certain conditions. Tourist activities important for the sustainable development of the Bačka sector of the Danube and Tisza are related to nautical tourism, sports and recreational tourism and ecotourism. There are certain restrictions in somesectors. The increased content of suspended solids, especially in the warmer half of the year, may limit activities from the aspect of nautical tourism. Since there are numerous protected natural assets of importance for ecotourism on the banks of the Danube and Tisza, higher levels of suspended solids and nitrates can lead to fish extinction, as they lead to increased water turbidity, which is a limiting factor from the point of view of sport fishing as an ecotourism segment. Sustainable agricultural production in the area of Bačka is possible thanks to the favorable soil structure and the dominant participation of chernozems. Certain limitations exist due to the presence of halomorphic soils, which arelimited production capacity. The CORINE remote sensing program recordedcertain pedological changes: a) out of a total of five categories and 26 land useclasses, especially the increase in the share of areas in the category of artificialareas (incomplete urban areas and artificial units); b) in the category of agricultural land, the area under non-irrigated arable land has not reduced its share, which indicates the sustainability of agricultural production; c) the class of orchards and granary plantations increased the area by nearly 4.000 ha by 2018; d) complex cultivation patterns have undergone the most intensive changes (reduction of areas by about 21.000 ha); e) there is a reduction of areas under the class of broad-leaved forests, which indicates the problem of deforestation; f) the conversion of pedological cover classes is most pronounced in the period 1990-2000 and from the aspect of total areas and shares of classes affected by conversion; g) it is a favorable fact that the conversion of land cover classes is not expressed in the relation agricultural land – artificial land; h) mapping of pedological changes indicates that the changes were most intense during the 1990s. Expansion of urbanization, urban lifestyle and industrialization may in the future affect the sustainability of agricultural production. Analysis of CORINE changes in the interpretation of biotic changes in the area of Bačka indicates that in relation to: (a) total changes in vegetation cover and land use of Bačka as well as (b) changes in selected protected areas of Bačka changes of the highest intensity were registered in the 1990s. In general, the largest part of Bačka is without pronounced changes in the vegetation cover. Also, low afforestation of Bačka was observed (about 6%),while in the structure of vegetation, the largest area is occupied by the class of broad-leaved forests, which is a favorable circumstance. The most intensive changes in terms of the analyzed protected areas of Bačka exist in SNR “Gornje Podunavlje”, which corresponds to the influence of its size in relation to the analyzed protected areas of Bačka (SNR “Koviljsko-petrovaradinski rit”, SNR “Karadjordjevo”, REC “Suboticka peščara”) . Determined changes in the protected areas of Bačka indicate the negative effects of forestry in the context of unplanned management and unfavorable structure of woody species used for afforestation. The protected natural areas of Bačka are also the centers of active hunting and hunting tourism, so the existing number of hunting grounds and accommodation capacities have a favorable effect from the aspect of sustainability of these economic activities. Also, ecotourism and ecotourism offer in the protected natural areas of Bačka is based on the authenticity and tourist valorization of “SRP Gornje Podunavlje”, where ecotourism is especially developed. However, from the aspect of the sustainability of ecotourism, the limiting factor of the tourist offer of Bačka is the fact that this resource is partially used only in the Bačka Danube region. These facts indicate that it is necessary to activate other ecotourism destinations in Bačka, especiallyprotected areas in Bačka Potisje. The results of the research can be used for complex geospatial analyzes and interpretations, production of thematic maps and similar purposes. Prominent research results can represent the basis for geoecological research of a more complex character and empirical studies of physical-geographical potentials in perspective.



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